Symposium of Macro Econometric Model

Macro - Econometric System Modelling

We summarize the history of macroeconometric system modelling as having produced four generations of models. Over time the principles underlying the model designs have been extended to incorporate eight major features. Because models often evolve in response to external events we are led to ask what has happened to models used in the policy process since the financial crisis on 2008/9. We find ...

An Examination of Some Tools for Macro-Econometric Model Building

Designing a Dynamic Macro Econometric Model for the Iranian economy with Emphasizing on dynamics of the National Development Fund

Oil Revenue Management (ORM) has always been one of the key challenges facing the oil rich developing countries. In this regard, the main objective of this paper is to provide a dynamic macroeconometric model adapted to the state of the Iranian economy. Also, the assessment of the dynamics of the National Development Fund (NDF) and its impact on macroeconomic variables are discussed. The result...

An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period

This paper analyses current policy choices facing the candidate countries for EU accession using newly developed econometric macromodels of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Estonia. The models allow for endogenous growth, and they have been incorporated into an existing global econometric model (NiGEM). This allows long-term projections to be made consistently with expected dev...

An Analysis of a Macro-Econometric Model with Rational Expectations in the Bond and Stock Markets

The difficulty of accounting for expectational effects in macro-economic models is well known. The standard procedure in dealing with this problem in the construction of large-scale macro-econometric models is to use current and lagged values as “proxies” for expected future values. An alternative procedure is to assume that expectations are rational. Although the assumption of rational expecta...